Frelinghuysen's chances of holding seat downgraded

Two political handicapping websites on Friday downgraded Rep. Rodney Frelinghuysen's chance of keeping his seat in Congress next year.

Cook Political Report moved the race to "lean Republican," a notch above "toss-up." Inside Elections moved the race from "likely Republican" to "lean Republican," but its scale includes another step, "tilt Republican," before calling a race a toss-up.

Cook House editor David Wasserman wrote that Frelinghuysen's 11th District, which picked up liberal strongholds such as Montclair after redistricting in 2011, is "trending rapidly away from the GOP." 

"Frelinghuysen, the newly minted appropriations chair, hasn't had to run a real race since 1992," Wasserman wrote. 

Democratic activists fired up about President Donald Trump's policies have been holding regular protests at Frelinghuysen's offices. The congressman also was the subject of an ethics complaint filed this week over his hand-written note in a fund-raising letter to a bank executive saying that a bank employee was "one of the ringleaders" of the opposition effort. The woman subsequently left her job.

‘Ringleaders’ gather at Frelinghuysen’s Morristown office

Cook also mentioned Frelinghuysen's vote for the health insurance bill to repeal and replace Obamacare, and the decsion by a former Navy helicopter pilot from Montclair, Mikie Sherill, to begin building a campaign to challenge him. 

"Republicans hit back at Sherill for living just outside the 11th CD, but residency issues haven't swayed a lot of House races lately," Wasserman wrote.

Chris Martin, spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee, dismissed the ratings change.

"If arbitrary beltway prognostication translated into electoral results, Hillary Clinton would be president today," Martin said. "Congressman Frelinghuysen has a long, proven record of getting results for the 11th District.”

The Democratic Congressonal Campaign Committee, the political arm of House Democrats, is focusing its efforts for 2018 on states that Trump lost, and early targeting includes four of New Jersey's five Republicans, including Frelinghuysen.

"This ratings change shows once again how vulnerable Representative Frelinghuysen is ahead of next year's election," said DCCC Spokesman Evan Lukaske. "Frelinghuysen is ripe for replacement."

In 2016, the DCCC successfully targeted Rep. Scott Garrett in the 5th District in the most expensive House campaign ever waged in New Jersey.