Voters weary of Christie have their first chance to pick his likely successor

It has been eight years since voters first saw Chris Christie's name on a ballot for governor. And while recent surveys strongly suggest they are anxious to see him go, there's no indication that Tuesday's primary will be overwhelmed by people expressing their dissatisfaction with him and choosing his successor. 

But this much is certain: Whomever wins Tuesday's primary contest will be nothing in style and substance like Christie. He has been a singular force in New Jersey politics since elbowing his way into the State House in 2010. Every one of his potential replacements seems tame in comparison, and most reject his brusque brand of leadership.  

And both sides have presented policies largely at odds with how Christie has governed. Democrats are promising to put New Jersey on a progressive path that could rival the liberal bastion of California, while Republicans vow a more center-right future marked by fiscal conservatism and a laissez-faire attitude on social issues. 

Despite Christie's historic unpopularity — he dropped to 17 percent in January, a low matched only by former Democratic Gov. Brendan Byrne — his lieutenant governor, Kim Guadagno, remains the lead contender for the Republican Party nomination. She has attempted to balance her role as a champion of business and the economy, claiming credit for the positive outcomes of the administration, while also distancing herself from Christie on key pocketbook issues. 

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But Guadagno faces a challenge from Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli, a virtual unknown at the outset of the race who has closed the gap in recent polling. They agree on some major policy issues: both favor decriminalizing marijuana, both back an overhaul of the school-funding formula and they both want more reforms for the public employee pension system. 

Guadagno's association with Christie has dogged her through the campaign and her grasp on the finer points of some major issues has been criticized by policy analysts and editorial boards. At the same time, Ciattarelli, a former accountant, has not had the level of visibility that Guadagno has had. He has run on a five-point plan designed to put New Jersey on stable fiscal footing, and he enjoys debating the nuances of heavy topics such as school funding and tax rates. But his focus on policy details, he has acknowledged, runs the risk of alienating some conservative voters. 

"While the intellectual in me would agree with many of the things he says, the political pragmatist says you can't get elected with that," said Brigid Harrison, a political science professor at Montclair State University. 

Primaries do not typically attract a large number of voters, and this year's is expected to draw at most about 20 percent of registered voters, and that is an optimistic figure. In contested counties, voter turnout could have a heavy influence in the outcome of the Republican race. 

One might assume that Christie's unpopularity in the first primary election since Donald Trump took office as president would drive voters to the polls. But Krista Jenkins, director of Farleigh Dickinson University's PublicMind Poll, said there is voter apathy in primary contests and a "sense of futility that it doesn't really matter who's elected." 

The Democratic candidates are aligned on many of the major issues and they are all united in their opposition to Christie. Yet their race is considered less of a contest than a coronation. Phil Murphy, a former executive at Goldman Sachs and U.S. ambassador to Germany, announced his campaign last year and has secured the support of all 21 county Democratic organizations, giving him the preferred ballot placement statewide. That is a key factor for any candidate, and Murphy has also spent $20 million, dwarfing his major rivals. 

Those challengers — Sen. Ray Lesniak, former Treasury undersecretary Jim Johnson and Assemblyman John Wisniewski — stepped up their criticism of Murphy as a wealthy hollow suit who is buying his political success. They have lamented New Jersey's political boss system and the influence of money. But no campaign in modern history has been successful without those two elements — money and county organizational support. 

Johnson and Wisniewski sustained their focus on Murphy in the final days before the primary, accusing him of hypocrisy for saying he would agree to spending caps in the general election if he wins and saying that his Wall Street background conflicts with his progressive platform. Murphy has not responded, instead focusing on his message as an advocate for the the middle class who will clean up the wreckage left by Christie and stand up to President Donald Trump. 

The popular view in New Jersey — bolstered by multiple polls — is that it is not a question of whether Murphy will win the primary, but by how much. But if Trump's win against Democrat Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential election offered one lesson, it is to question the conventional wisdom. 

Jenkins, the pollster, said she is hesitant to handicap the Democratic race, but given Murphy's advantages, "I'm not going to be completely surprised if I wake up on June 7 and Phil Murphy is the Democratic nominee."